People will know that few things infuriate me more that the idiotic idea that it is worth taking a running back early in the NFL Draft. And definitely fuck trading up to get one. Mark my words, if I were a GM, I would NEVER take a running back in the first two rounds of the draft. EVER. If Jesus Christ came back to earth wearing #22 and won four straight Heismans (of course Jesus would stay for all 4 years), I wouldn't even look his way until the 3rd round. And then I'd listen to anyone who wanted to swap picks to come up and get him. I'm looking for a linebacker.
You want to talk about how to draft in the first couple rounds? Take a look at the The Jets in 2006. Franchise Left Tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson and franchise Center Nick Mangold? Stellar. Kellen Clemens in Rd. 2 was also worth a flyer because Nick Mangold's sister is stronger than starter Chad Pennington. Thats how to fucking draft.
Anyways whats my reasoning on the running back position? Part of it is my visceral hate of Reggie Bush, perhaps the most overhyped, underperforming running back ever to play in the NFL. Remember how every sportscaster and analyst got their panties in a twist because the Texans passed on Bush to take Mario Williams? They dont know shit. Williams absolutely exploded last year, with 14 sacks. The only thing about Reggie Bush that exploded was his left knee.
But moving from the emotional to the strategic, the gap between "great" running backs and "very good" running backs is vanishingly small. More times than not, the gap has nothing to do with skill, its just hype, or because X running back measured 3 inches shorter than Y running back. Fuck that. What matters more is the quality of your O-line (see Broncos, Denver). Also, no other position gets beat up and injured as much as a running back. You cant really count on continued production because the risk of a season or career-ending injury is too great. But lets go to the tape. Here are the starting running backs for all 32 teams (some pairs for teams that do it by platoon), and their draft positions:
You want to talk about how to draft in the first couple rounds? Take a look at the The Jets in 2006. Franchise Left Tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson and franchise Center Nick Mangold? Stellar. Kellen Clemens in Rd. 2 was also worth a flyer because Nick Mangold's sister is stronger than starter Chad Pennington. Thats how to fucking draft.
Anyways whats my reasoning on the running back position? Part of it is my visceral hate of Reggie Bush, perhaps the most overhyped, underperforming running back ever to play in the NFL. Remember how every sportscaster and analyst got their panties in a twist because the Texans passed on Bush to take Mario Williams? They dont know shit. Williams absolutely exploded last year, with 14 sacks. The only thing about Reggie Bush that exploded was his left knee.
But moving from the emotional to the strategic, the gap between "great" running backs and "very good" running backs is vanishingly small. More times than not, the gap has nothing to do with skill, its just hype, or because X running back measured 3 inches shorter than Y running back. Fuck that. What matters more is the quality of your O-line (see Broncos, Denver). Also, no other position gets beat up and injured as much as a running back. You cant really count on continued production because the risk of a season or career-ending injury is too great. But lets go to the tape. Here are the starting running backs for all 32 teams (some pairs for teams that do it by platoon), and their draft positions:
NFC
Cowboys- Marion Barber/ Julius Jones Round: 4 (4.5 YPC) and Round 2 (3.9 YPC)
Giants- Brandon Jacobs/Ahmad Bradshaw Round: 4 (4.6 YPC) and Round: 7 (8.3 YPC)
Eagles- Brian Westbrook Round: 3 (4.7 YPC)
Redskins- Clinton Portis Round: 2 (4.5 YPC)
Cardinals- Edgerrin James Round: 1 (4.1 YPC)
49'ers- Frank Gore Round: 3 (4.9 YPC)
Seahawks- Shaun Alexander Round: 1 (4.3 YPC)
Rams- Steven Jackson Round: 1 (4.4 YPC)
Bears- Cedric Benson Round: 1 (3.8 YPC)
Lions- Tatum Bell Round: 2 (4.8 YPC)
Packers- Ryan Grant UNDRAFTED (5.1 YPC)
Vikings- Adrian Peterson/Chester Taylor Round: 1 (5.6 YPC) and Round: 6 (4.4 YPC)
Falcons- Warrick Dunn Round: 1 (4.1 YPC)
Panthers- DeAngelo Williams Round: 1 (4.6 YPC)
Saints- Deuce McAllister/ Reggie Bush Round: 1 (4.3 YPC) and Round: 1 (3.7 YPC)
Bucs- Earnest Graham UNDRAFTED (4.1 YPC)
AFC
Bills- Marshawn Lynch Round: 1 (4.0 YPC)
Dolphins- Ronnie Brown Round:1 (4.4 YPC)
Patriots- Lawrence Maroney Round: 1 (4.4 YPC)
Jets- Thomas Jones Round:1 (3.9 YPC)
Broncos- Travis Henry Round:2 (4.1 YPC)
Chiefs-Larry Johnson Round:1 (4.5 YPC)
Raiders- Justin Fargas Round:3 (4.2 YPC)
Chargers- LaDanian Tomlinson Round:1 (4.5 YPC)
Ravens- Willis McGahee Round:1 (4.1 YPC)
Bengals-Rudi Johnson Round: 4 (4.0 YPC)
Browns- Jamal Lewis Round:1 (4.3 YPC)
Steelers- Willie Parker UNDRAFTED (4.4 YPC)
Colts- Joseph Addai Round: 1 (4.4 YPC)
Texans- Ahman Green Round: 3 (4.5 YPC)
Titans- Lendale White Round: 2 (3.7 YPC)
Jaguars- Fred Taylor Round:1 (4.7 YPC)/ Maurice Jones Drew Round: 2 (5.1 YPC)
Besides Reggie Bush sucking it up with a 3.7 YPC average (lowest among first rounders, yay!), what else is important? Well here are the YPC averages grouped by what round they were drafted in:
Round 1: 4.32 YPC (19)
Round 2: 4.35 YPC (6)
Round 3: 4.57 YPC (4)
Round 4: 4.36 YPC (3)
Round 6: 4.4 YPC (1)
Round 7: 8.3 YPC (1)
Undrafted: 4.53 YPC (3)
As you can see, the worst rounds for running backs were the 1st and 2nd, while the best were 3rd and Undrafted (I feel safe arguing that Ahmad Bradshaw is probably not going to rush for 8.3 YPG next year). The metric is debateable, but I think career YPC is probably a pretty damn accurate measure of overall effectiveness.
"Ah," you might say, "you didn't take into account touchdowns, or longevity, or % of picks who 'bust'!" This is true, but I also didn't take into account salaries. Average salary for a first round pick? In 2007 it was about $5-6 million per year. Closer to the top pick, the more expensive it gets. JaMarcus Russell, the no. 1 pick last year, signed a 6 year, $61 million contract. The aforementioned Reggie Bush? 6 year, $52.5 million, not including the illegal bennies from an agent while at USC. For someone whose career so far has mostly involved getting cockroached and hiding behind huge asses (the New Orleans offensive line, not Kim Kardashian), its good work if you can get it. On the other side, the Packers last year paid Ryan Grant $310,000. The Giants signed their Superbowl RB to a 4 year contract at $1.7 million. Lets say you're a GM and you've got $52.5 million to pick up a RB. You want to sign Reggie Bush, (who sucks in case you forgot), or 169 undrafted RB's in the hope that 1 might be able to get you more than 3.7 YPC? I know what I would take.
I will forecast this right now. Darren McFadden will be drafted high, paid an obscene amount of money and maybe, like Purple Jesus, have a great game or two and lodge a few jaw-dropping plays. But at the end of the season, another running back dug out of the second day will put up similar, if not better, stats for a hell of a lot less money.
Dolphins- Ronnie Brown Round:1 (4.4 YPC)
Patriots- Lawrence Maroney Round: 1 (4.4 YPC)
Jets- Thomas Jones Round:1 (3.9 YPC)
Broncos- Travis Henry Round:2 (4.1 YPC)
Chiefs-Larry Johnson Round:1 (4.5 YPC)
Raiders- Justin Fargas Round:3 (4.2 YPC)
Chargers- LaDanian Tomlinson Round:1 (4.5 YPC)
Ravens- Willis McGahee Round:1 (4.1 YPC)
Bengals-Rudi Johnson Round: 4 (4.0 YPC)
Browns- Jamal Lewis Round:1 (4.3 YPC)
Steelers- Willie Parker UNDRAFTED (4.4 YPC)
Colts- Joseph Addai Round: 1 (4.4 YPC)
Texans- Ahman Green Round: 3 (4.5 YPC)
Titans- Lendale White Round: 2 (3.7 YPC)
Jaguars- Fred Taylor Round:1 (4.7 YPC)/ Maurice Jones Drew Round: 2 (5.1 YPC)
Besides Reggie Bush sucking it up with a 3.7 YPC average (lowest among first rounders, yay!), what else is important? Well here are the YPC averages grouped by what round they were drafted in:
Round 1: 4.32 YPC (19)
Round 2: 4.35 YPC (6)
Round 3: 4.57 YPC (4)
Round 4: 4.36 YPC (3)
Round 6: 4.4 YPC (1)
Round 7: 8.3 YPC (1)
Undrafted: 4.53 YPC (3)
As you can see, the worst rounds for running backs were the 1st and 2nd, while the best were 3rd and Undrafted (I feel safe arguing that Ahmad Bradshaw is probably not going to rush for 8.3 YPG next year). The metric is debateable, but I think career YPC is probably a pretty damn accurate measure of overall effectiveness.
"Ah," you might say, "you didn't take into account touchdowns, or longevity, or % of picks who 'bust'!" This is true, but I also didn't take into account salaries. Average salary for a first round pick? In 2007 it was about $5-6 million per year. Closer to the top pick, the more expensive it gets. JaMarcus Russell, the no. 1 pick last year, signed a 6 year, $61 million contract. The aforementioned Reggie Bush? 6 year, $52.5 million, not including the illegal bennies from an agent while at USC. For someone whose career so far has mostly involved getting cockroached and hiding behind huge asses (the New Orleans offensive line, not Kim Kardashian), its good work if you can get it. On the other side, the Packers last year paid Ryan Grant $310,000. The Giants signed their Superbowl RB to a 4 year contract at $1.7 million. Lets say you're a GM and you've got $52.5 million to pick up a RB. You want to sign Reggie Bush, (who sucks in case you forgot), or 169 undrafted RB's in the hope that 1 might be able to get you more than 3.7 YPC? I know what I would take.
I will forecast this right now. Darren McFadden will be drafted high, paid an obscene amount of money and maybe, like Purple Jesus, have a great game or two and lodge a few jaw-dropping plays. But at the end of the season, another running back dug out of the second day will put up similar, if not better, stats for a hell of a lot less money.
2 comments:
Is it safe to assume you are having a slow day at the office?
All DW readers should read the Blind Side by Michael Lewis...just as Stan says, winning comes down to the defense and the O-line...
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