Tuesday, April 29, 2008

Draft Recap


Because no one else seems to give a shit about writing on this blog, let me give some post-draft thoughts on the Jags now that the dust has settled. By the way- the Jacksonville Times-Union absolutely sucks when it comes to covering the Jags. Seriously. I bet no other hometown paper does worse.

FIRST ROUND

The Jags traded their first round pick (#26), both third-round picks (#71 and #89) and their fourth round pick (#125) to go to #8 overall, where they selected Florida defensive end Derrick Harvey.

I'm not completely sold on this pick. Harvey is a very good defensive end, and can rush the passer, but he was not worth the eighth pick. Look at it this way- if the Jags could have traded to get Jason Taylor, who could be counted on to give them a better '08 and '09 season- Taylor or Harvey? No contest there, plus the Jags could have held on to their third and fourth round picks.

As a counterpoint, the invaluable (but obviously biased) Jaguars page at Scout.com actually has a pretty interesting analysis arguing that the Jaguars made out like bandits with this trade, based on the points system teams use to evaluate trades. They also make a fairly good case that beyond #8 was actually where Harvey might go.

SECOND ROUND

The Jags traded picks with Tampa Bay to move up and get Auburn defensive end Quentin Groves with the 52nd overall pick. Groves is a pass-rushing machine, though he has a lingering foot injury and reportedly some motivational problems. This is more of a high risk-high reward type of pick, and I am fine with it especially since the Jags essentially backed up their first round pick with this one. One of the two will likely work out. Interestingly, the MVN website picked Groves to go to the Jags at their original #26 pick in their mock draft.

FIFTH ROUND

USC Linebacker Thomas Williams. A little home cooking here as Jags coach/ porn enthusiast Jack Del Rio also played linebacker at USC. But Williams is a good pick in the fifth round. He was hidden behind some real talent in the USC linebacking corps so he did not see much playing time, but perhaps with a few seasons of coaching he could make an impact. Could also see some action on special teams.

South Florida CB Trae Williams. Another good pickup. Much of the attention rightly goes to his teammate CB Mike Jenkins, but Williams has shown some consistent ball-hawk abilities (16 career interceptions) and is perfect for the Jags, who need some help in the defensive backfield. Williams projects as playing in a nickel or dime package. With the Jags starters at cornerback being the very good Rashean Mathis and the serviceable, newly-acquired Drayton Florence (who Stan thinks he played against in high school, seriously), and the rangy Reggie Nelson perhaps it wont be so easy for laserrocketarm to carve up the Jags for the next few years.

SEVENTH ROUND

USC running back Chauncey Washington. Honestly there is not much you could hope for in the seventh round, but I love this pick. Not only does it play right into my strategy of drafting running backs late, but if he gets his head right Washington seems like the type of player who could eventually make an impact. The Jags are a good fit for him- Fred Taylor is getting up there, and Maurice Jones Drew really cannot be an every-down back. Washington has the size and strength to be a primary back (if it ever gets to that point), and will be competitive with the Jags other backups and could get a roster spot. I seem to remember Mel Kiper arguing on Sportscenter that Washington was the most underrated player in the draft, for what its worth.

UNDRAFTED FREE AGENTS

Of note here is QB Paul Smith, who might make the team as a scout team/ 3rd QB; CB Brian Witherspoon who reportedly (video) posted a 4.16 40 time, though it was a little slower in his pro day workout (can't teach speed!); and WR Clyde Edwards who stands a good shot at making the team because the Jags wideouts generally suck.

OVERALL

There is something to be said about the Jags knowing what they need, primarily pass rushing from the ends and secondarily help in the defensive backfield, and then going out and doing it. The number of picks they gave up to get Harvey does hurt, because the Jags have always been good at finding guys in later rounds who can make the team. However, because of that very fact there really aren't that many roster spots where someone is guaranteed to fill in immediately. Jags GM James "Shack" Harris said as much when he told Scout.com "With our roster, we're not sure they [third-round picks] could make the team." Given that, the Jags did a good job of filling their immediate needs, then cherry-picking players in the latest round who they thought could possibly compete for a spot.

Of course we don't like to think this way, but there might be some marketing sentiment here as well. Harvey played at nearby UF, and the Jags have been active in drafting UF players in the past. Keeping this going might help put some butts in the seats and boost Jacksonville's chronically bad turnout. A little of the same with Groves as well- Auburn is close to Jacksonville, not to mention in the SEC.

Here's what people who do this for a living thought

Sports Illustrated:
  • Dr. Z (who has made a career out of getting shit wrong) thinks the Jags overreached.
  • Tony Pauline thinks the Jags overreached for Harvey but got a steal with Groves in the second round.
  • Michael Lombardi thinks the Jags closed the gap on the Colts
  • Peter King also seems pleased with the Jags draft, but is sad nobody drafted Brett Favre :(
ESPN:
  • Draft guru Mel Kiper gives the Jags a C-, noting that they should have traded for Jason Taylor. Hmmm...I wonder where he got that idea.
  • Todd McShay is also down (video) on the Jags
Others:
  • Pete Prisco at the underrated CBS Sportsline believes the Jags did the right thing to trade up for Harvey, but reached on Groves for an overall B-. The exact opposite of Pauline at SI.
  • Larry Weisman at USA Today gives the Jags a B, although he cant find a bad word to say about the choices. Imagine that. USA Today being uncontroversial.
  • Brendan Sonnone at MVN is a little disappointed in the Jag's day 1 selections.
  • Clifton Brown at The Sporting News gives the Jags a C, noting that both Harvey and Groves had consistency issues in college.
  • Jason Cole at Yahoo Sports gives the Jags a C+, also noting that Jason Taylor would have been a better option.
  • Vinnie Iver at The Sporting News also gives a good review of every round here.
Reactions from Jacksonville fans here and here

No comments: