Draft Recap

Because no one else seems to give a shit about writing on this blog, let me give some post-draft thoughts on the Jags now that the dust has settled. By the way- the Jacksonville Times-Union absolutely sucks when it comes to covering the Jags. Seriously. I bet no other hometown paper does worse.

FIRST ROUND

The Jags traded their first round pick (#26), both third-round picks (#71 and #89) and their fourth round pick (#125) to go to #8 overall, where they selected Florida defensive end Derrick Harvey.

I'm not completely sold on this pick. Harvey is a very good defensive end, and can rush the passer, but he was not worth the eighth pick. Look at it this way- if the Jags could have traded to get Jason Taylor, who could be counted on to give them a better '08 and '09 season- Taylor or Harvey? No contest there, plus the Jags could have held on to their third and fourth round picks.

As a counterpoint, the invaluable (but obviously biased) Jaguars page at Scout.com actually has a pretty interesting analysis arguing that the Jaguars made out like bandits with this trade, based on the points system teams use to evaluate trades. They also make a fairly good case that beyond #8 was actually where Harvey might go.

SECOND ROUND

The Jags traded picks with Tampa Bay to move up and get Auburn defensive end Quentin Groves with the 52nd overall pick. Groves is a pass-rushing machine, though he has a lingering foot injury and reportedly some motivational problems. This is more of a high risk-high reward type of pick, and I am fine with it especially since the Jags essentially backed up their first round pick with this one. One of the two will likely work out. Interestingly, the MVN website picked Groves to go to the Jags at their original #26 pick in their mock draft.

FIFTH ROUND

USC Linebacker Thomas Williams. A little home cooking here as Jags coach/ porn enthusiast Jack Del Rio also played linebacker at USC. But Williams is a good pick in the fifth round. He was hidden behind some real talent in the USC linebacking corps so he did not see much playing time, but perhaps with a few seasons of coaching he could make an impact. Could also see some action on special teams.

South Florida CB Trae Williams. Another good pickup. Much of the attention rightly goes to his teammate CB Mike Jenkins, but Williams has shown some consistent ball-hawk abilities (16 career interceptions) and is perfect for the Jags, who need some help in the defensive backfield. Williams projects as playing in a nickel or dime package. With the Jags starters at cornerback being the very good Rashean Mathis and the serviceable, newly-acquired Drayton Florence (who Stan thinks he played against in high school, seriously), and the rangy Reggie Nelson perhaps it wont be so easy for laserrocketarm to carve up the Jags for the next few years.

SEVENTH ROUND

USC running back Chauncey Washington. Honestly there is not much you could hope for in the seventh round, but I love this pick. Not only does it play right into my strategy of drafting running backs late, but if he gets his head right Washington seems like the type of player who could eventually make an impact. The Jags are a good fit for him- Fred Taylor is getting up there, and Maurice Jones Drew really cannot be an every-down back. Washington has the size and strength to be a primary back (if it ever gets to that point), and will be competitive with the Jags other backups and could get a roster spot. I seem to remember Mel Kiper arguing on Sportscenter that Washington was the most underrated player in the draft, for what its worth.

UNDRAFTED FREE AGENTS

Of note here is QB Paul Smith, who might make the team as a scout team/ 3rd QB; CB Brian Witherspoon who reportedly (video) posted a 4.16 40 time, though it was a little slower in his pro day workout (can't teach speed!); and WR Clyde Edwards who stands a good shot at making the team because the Jags wideouts generally suck.

OVERALL

There is something to be said about the Jags knowing what they need, primarily pass rushing from the ends and secondarily help in the defensive backfield, and then going out and doing it. The number of picks they gave up to get Harvey does hurt, because the Jags have always been good at finding guys in later rounds who can make the team. However, because of that very fact there really aren't that many roster spots where someone is guaranteed to fill in immediately. Jags GM James "Shack" Harris said as much when he told Scout.com "With our roster, we're not sure they [third-round picks] could make the team." Given that, the Jags did a good job of filling their immediate needs, then cherry-picking players in the latest round who they thought could possibly compete for a spot.

Of course we don't like to think this way, but there might be some marketing sentiment here as well. Harvey played at nearby UF, and the Jags have been active in drafting UF players in the past. Keeping this going might help put some butts in the seats and boost Jacksonville's chronically bad turnout. A little of the same with Groves as well- Auburn is close to Jacksonville, not to mention in the SEC.

Here's what people who do this for a living thought

Sports Illustrated:

• Dr. Z (who has made a career out of getting shit wrong) thinks the Jags overreached.
• Tony Pauline thinks the Jags overreached for Harvey but got a steal with Groves in the second round.
• Michael Lombardi thinks the Jags closed the gap on the Colts
• Peter King also seems pleased with the Jags draft, but is sad nobody drafted Brett Favre :(
  

ESPN:

• Draft guru Mel Kiper gives the Jags a C-, noting that they should have traded for Jason Taylor. Hmmm...I wonder where he got that idea.
• Todd McShay is also down (video) on the Jags

Others:

• Pete Prisco at the underrated CBS Sportsline believes the Jags did the right thing to trade up for Harvey, but reached on Groves for an overall B-. The exact opposite of Pauline at SI.
• Larry Weisman at USA Today gives the Jags a B, although he cant find a bad word to say about the choices. Imagine that. USA Today being uncontroversial.
  
• Brendan Sonnone at MVN is a little disappointed in the Jag's day 1 selections.
• Clifton Brown at The Sporting News gives the Jags a C, noting that both Harvey and Groves had consistency issues in college.
• Jason Cole at Yahoo Sports gives the Jags a C+, also noting that Jason Taylor would have been a better option.
• Vinnie Iver at The Sporting News also gives a good review of every round here.

Reactions from Jacksonville fans here and here

Draft Time! Go Jags Go!

*why does his head look so small?

No more about the running backs, but I reserve the right to throw a tantrum when some idiot GM gets caught up in the hype and throws a wad of millions at Darren McFadden. This is about the Jacksonville Jaguars, my dear team.

This year the Jags pick at #26, near the bottom of the first round. They need to shore up their defensive front. This is only more pressing after the offseason trade of Marcus Stroud, who along with John Henderson formed the most intimidating defensive tackle duo in football. But it doesnt take Emmitt Smith to tell you the Jag's problem is with the pass rush. Anyone who watched the AFC semis last year versus the Pats remembers Brady hanging a pedestrian %92.9 completion percentage (thats probably higher than the Jag's handoff completion percentage) on the board and walking off the field without a speck of dirt on his uniform. Playing in a division with laserrocketarm further underscores the need to bolster the pass rush.

On that note, some have speculated about the Jags trying to get Clemson DE Philip Merling who is talented, but somewhat of a question mark as he is coming off hernia surgery as well as being more of a project than an immediately ready-to-contribute guy. Other names have floated around, including a few half-hearted suggestions that the Jags try and move up to grab some of the premier guys like Chris Long or Vernon Gholston. Thats not gonna happen.

Instead, the Jags should trade for Miami DE and six-time pro bowler (and 2006 defensive player of the year) Jason Taylor. Not only are the Dolphins shopping Taylor for a reported first round pick, the Dolphins also want to move up into the end of the first round to get QB Chad Henne, the college teammate of their first overall selection OT Jake Long. Henne will be there at the Jags #26 pick. Its true Taylor is getting up there, but he can still give the Jags 3 good years. Not to mention he gets to play on a contender and mentor the exciting crop of youngsters the Jags are developing on the defensive side of the ball. The Jags have always drafted well in the later rounds, especially when they go defense, so odds are they will be able to get some good prospects later in the draft, maybe Marcus Dixon from Hampton (good choice especially with his college teammate Justin Durant coming into his second year with the Jags).

Over to you, Del Rio. Pull up the mesh shorts, stop watching Bubble Butt Bonanza, and get this done!

Stan Wolansky on the clock

People will know that few things infuriate me more that the idiotic idea that it is worth taking a running back early in the NFL Draft. And definitely fuck trading up to get one. Mark my words, if I were a GM, I would NEVER take a running back in the first two rounds of the draft. EVER. If Jesus Christ came back to earth wearing #22 and won four straight Heismans (of course Jesus would stay for all 4 years), I wouldn't even look his way until the 3rd round. And then I'd listen to anyone who wanted to swap picks to come up and get him. I'm looking for a linebacker.

You want to talk about how to draft in the first couple rounds? Take a look at the The Jets in 2006. Franchise Left Tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson and franchise Center Nick Mangold? Stellar. Kellen Clemens in Rd. 2 was also worth a flyer because Nick Mangold's sister is stronger than starter Chad Pennington. Thats how to fucking draft.

Anyways whats my reasoning on the running back position? Part of it is my visceral hate of Reggie Bush, perhaps the most overhyped, underperforming running back ever to play in the NFL. Remember how every sportscaster and analyst got their panties in a twist because the Texans passed on Bush to take Mario Williams? They dont know shit. Williams absolutely exploded last year, with 14 sacks. The only thing about Reggie Bush that exploded was his left knee.

But moving from the emotional to the strategic, the gap between "great" running backs and "very good" running backs is vanishingly small. More times than not, the gap has nothing to do with skill, its just hype, or because X running back measured 3 inches shorter than Y running back. Fuck that. What matters more is the quality of your O-line (see Broncos, Denver). Also, no other position gets beat up and injured as much as a running back. You cant really count on continued production because the risk of a season or career-ending injury is too great. But lets go to the tape. Here are the starting running backs for all 32 teams (some pairs for teams that do it by platoon), and their draft positions:

NFC

Cowboys- Marion Barber/ Julius Jones Round: 4 (4.5 YPC) and Round 2 (3.9 YPC)
Giants- Brandon Jacobs/Ahmad Bradshaw Round: 4 (4.6 YPC) and Round: 7 (8.3 YPC)
Eagles- Brian Westbrook Round: 3 (4.7 YPC)
Redskins- Clinton Portis Round: 2 (4.5 YPC)
Cardinals- Edgerrin James Round: 1 (4.1 YPC)
49'ers- Frank Gore Round: 3 (4.9 YPC)
Seahawks- Shaun Alexander Round: 1 (4.3 YPC)
Rams- Steven Jackson Round: 1 (4.4 YPC)
Bears- Cedric Benson Round: 1 (3.8 YPC)
Lions- Tatum Bell Round: 2 (4.8 YPC)
Packers- Ryan Grant UNDRAFTED (5.1 YPC)
Vikings- Adrian Peterson/Chester Taylor Round: 1 (5.6 YPC) and Round: 6 (4.4 YPC)
Falcons- Warrick Dunn Round: 1 (4.1 YPC)
Panthers- DeAngelo Williams Round: 1 (4.6 YPC)
Saints- Deuce McAllister/ Reggie Bush Round: 1 (4.3 YPC) and Round: 1 (3.7 YPC)
Bucs- Earnest Graham UNDRAFTED (4.1 YPC)

AFC

Bills- Marshawn Lynch Round: 1 (4.0 YPC)
Dolphins- Ronnie Brown Round:1 (4.4 YPC)
Patriots- Lawrence Maroney Round: 1 (4.4 YPC)
Jets- Thomas Jones Round:1 (3.9 YPC)
Broncos- Travis Henry Round:2 (4.1 YPC)
Chiefs-Larry Johnson Round:1 (4.5 YPC)
Raiders- Justin Fargas Round:3 (4.2 YPC)
Chargers- LaDanian Tomlinson Round:1 (4.5 YPC)
Ravens- Willis McGahee Round:1 (4.1 YPC)
Bengals-Rudi Johnson Round: 4 (4.0 YPC)
Browns- Jamal Lewis Round:1 (4.3 YPC)
Steelers- Willie Parker UNDRAFTED (4.4 YPC)
Colts- Joseph Addai Round: 1 (4.4 YPC)
Texans- Ahman Green Round: 3 (4.5 YPC)
Titans- Lendale White Round: 2 (3.7 YPC)
Jaguars- Fred Taylor Round:1 (4.7 YPC)/ Maurice Jones Drew Round: 2 (5.1 YPC)

Besides Reggie Bush sucking it up with a 3.7 YPC average (lowest among first rounders, yay!), what else is important? Well here are the YPC averages grouped by what round they were drafted in:

Round 1: 4.32 YPC (19)
Round 2: 4.35 YPC (6)
Round 3: 4.57 YPC (4)
Round 4: 4.36 YPC (3)
Round 6: 4.4 YPC (1)
Round 7: 8.3 YPC (1)
Undrafted: 4.53 YPC (3)

As you can see, the worst rounds for running backs were the 1st and 2nd, while the best were 3rd and Undrafted (I feel safe arguing that Ahmad Bradshaw is probably not going to rush for 8.3 YPG next year). The metric is debateable, but I think career YPC is probably a pretty damn accurate measure of overall effectiveness.

"Ah," you might say, "you didn't take into account touchdowns, or longevity, or % of picks who 'bust'!" This is true, but I also didn't take into account salaries. Average salary for a first round pick? In 2007 it was about $5-6 million per year. Closer to the top pick, the more expensive it gets. JaMarcus Russell, the no. 1 pick last year, signed a 6 year, $61 million contract. The aforementioned Reggie Bush? 6 year, $52.5 million, not including the illegal bennies from an agent while at USC. For someone whose career so far has mostly involved getting cockroached and hiding behind huge asses (the New Orleans offensive line, not Kim Kardashian), its good work if you can get it. On the other side, the Packers last year paid Ryan Grant $310,000. The Giants signed their Superbowl RB to a 4 year contract at $1.7 million. Lets say you're a GM and you've got $52.5 million to pick up a RB. You want to sign Reggie Bush, (who sucks in case you forgot), or 169 undrafted RB's in the hope that 1 might be able to get you more than 3.7 YPC? I know what I would take.

I will forecast this right now. Darren McFadden will be drafted high, paid an obscene amount of money and maybe, like Purple Jesus, have a great game or two and lodge a few jaw-dropping plays. But at the end of the season, another running back dug out of the second day will put up similar, if not better, stats for a hell of a lot less money.

wow

thats all I can say.

18-1. Choke on it, you dick.

That was easily the best superbowl I have ever seen and likely the best ever. When you combine all the threads- undefeated season on the line, the Pat's "unstoppable" offense, Eli's maturation into a bigtime qb (yes, I will say that now), a rematch of the last game of the season, how close it was throughout, 4th quarter lead changes, game winning drives, all of that- its tough to see how another superbowl tops this one.


And yeah, I know this is a cheap shot but its also so easy. I like Brady and think by the time he retires he could make a legitimate claim to being the game's best QB. But this post isnt about Brady, or the rest of the Pats players who regardless of everything else put together a hell of a season. Its about Belichick, an asshole of the highest caliber. If its not forcing players with concussions to go full contact in practice, cheating, acting like a petulant shit when one of his coaches leaves (gasp!) to take a head coaching job, or rudely shoving a cameraman, (this guy chronicles a few more of Belichick's nicer moments) its leaving the field when the game lays unfinished. A classy move by a classy man. Losing the Superbowl and fucking up the perfect season couldnt have happened to a nicer guy.

My schadenfreude is tempered by the fact that I have to look forward to about a week of hearing that sentimental dipshit Mercury Morris run his mouth. Please. Get back on the golf course, relax, age gracefully, and try not to be so transparently bitter.